Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Fantasy solar panel performance prediction

OK, so I've been playing with figures over lunch.

It's now 2 weeks tomorrow until our 3rd quarterly generation meter reading will be submitted and I've been calculating / guesstimating what figures we'll have then and at the end of the year:

  • Q1 474 units = £213
  • Q2 1125 units (1599 total) = £518 (£731 total)
  • *Q3 1326 units (2925 total) = £623 (£1354 total) *prediction
  • *Q4 725 units (3650 total) = £340 (£1694 total) *prediction

The assumptions I've made are:
* average of 15 units per day from last Saturday until Wed 22nd August;
* average of 8 units per day from 23rd Aug - 22nd Nov (10 units/day in Sep, 8 units/day in Oct, 6 units/day in Nov).

This would take us to a grand total for the year of around 3640 units - around £1700.

Compared to the pre-installation predictions this would be around 7% up on the performance and 10% up on the payment (due to inflation-linked FiT increase).

Not bad for a mediocre summer!

So you can either look at it as 
1 - covering our gas & electricity costs for the year (our over-estimated bill is around £1650 per year) 
OR 
2 - set it against paying back 15% of the cost of the solar PV system 
OR 
3 - against paying back most of the first year cost of the loan for it.

The loan is of course not inflation-linked so will reduce in time relative to the increasing payments for the FiT (although the loan amount will of course grow with interest during the 7 years duration).

The loan will be paid off after 7 years and we'll then have a further 18 guaranteed years of the FiT income before it becomes a case of simply "don't turn anything on until the sunshines"!

And what's more, our electricity bill since we installed Solar PV has not reduced due to the incompatibility of our incoming electricity meter.  This will be resolved (hopefully sooner rather than later) and will mean a credit for this current year and with accurate billing in future, hopefully our electricity bills will be around £250 - 350 lower per year.

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